By Larry McKinney, Realtor, Hogge Real Estate Inc.

If you've been waiting for the Middle Peninsula housing market to "get back to normal," the second quarter of 2026 might be the closest thing we've seen in years. The Chesapeake Bay & Rivers Association of Realtors just released its Q2 report, and the headline is simple: more homes sold, more homes for sale, and prices that are behaving differently in every county. Here's what it means for you.

The big picture: busiest first half since 2022

Across the CBRAR footprint — Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, King & Queen, and King William — 380 homes closed in the second quarter, up 12 percent from a year ago. That makes this the strongest first half of the year for sales since 2022, back when rates were still in the threes. Pending sales climbed 13 percent to 402, so the pipeline heading into fall is full.

Just as important, sellers are finally showing up. Active listings hit 455 at the end of June, up 12 percent from last year and nearly double what we had in mid-2023. Months of supply now sits at 4.4 — still shy of the 5 to 6 months traditionally considered a balanced market, but a world away from the frenzy of a few years back. Homes took a median 26 days to sell, about five days longer than last summer, and the average home sold for 98.9 percent of asking. Translation: buyers can breathe, but well-priced homes still move.

County by county

Gloucester remains the workhorse of the region: 146 sales (up 8 percent), a median price of $379,900 (up 7 percent), and homes going under contract in a median of just 17 days. Inventory is up 14 percent to 181 listings, but demand is keeping pace — sellers here averaged 99.2 percent of asking.

Middlesex was the price leader. The median jumped 9 percent to $429,450, sales rose 12 percent, and pending sales surged 26 percent — the strongest forward signal in the region. Homes are taking longer to sell (46 days median), which tells me buyers are being selective even as they keep buying.

Mathews is the outlier, and it deserves an honest read. The median price fell 18 percent to $349,000, sales dipped 10 percent, days on market stretched from 16 to 47, and months of supply hit 6.1 — technically a buyer's market. But here's the caveat I give every client: Mathews sells only a few dozen homes a quarter. A handful of high-end waterfront closings last year and a more modest mix this year can swing the median dramatically without your individual home losing a dime of value. What the Mathews numbers do say clearly: pricing correctly matters more there than anywhere else in the region right now, with sellers averaging just 95.8 percent of asking.

Why this is happening

Two forces are doing most of the work. First, mortgage rates have settled. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed averaged 6.58 percent in late July, down from 6.74 percent a year ago. That's not cheap money, but it's stable money — and stability is what coaxes buyers and sellers off the sidelines. Homeowners who felt locked into their pandemic-era rates are increasingly deciding that life can't wait for 5 percent.

Second, the inventory rebuild is feeding on itself. Every new listing gives a move-up buyer somewhere to go, which puts their house on the market, and so on. The report's own outlook says it plainly: pent-up demand is absorbing the surge in listings, and if listing growth continues, more sales likely follow.

What it means for you

If you're selling: this is a genuinely good market — but it's a pricing market, not a fever market. Buyers have 455 alternatives regionwide. Homes priced to recent comparable sales are selling near asking in Gloucester in under three weeks; overpriced homes are sitting 45+ days and negotiating down, especially in Mathews and Middlesex.

If you're buying: you have more choices than any summer since 2020, sellers are more negotiable than the headlines suggest, and a rate in the mid-sixes today can always be refinanced if rates drift lower. Waiting for the perfect rate often costs more in price than it saves in interest.

Every one of these numbers is a regional average, and no average ever bought or sold a house. If you'd like to know what the Q2 data means for your specific property or your search — in Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, or anywhere on the Middle Peninsula — call or email me anytime. I'm always glad to talk local real estate.

Larry McKinney is a Realtor with Hogge Real Estate Inc. Data: Chesapeake Bay & Rivers Association of Realtors Q2-2026 Housing Market Report (Virginia REALTORS®) and Freddie Mac PMMS. 757-503-2544 | larryourrealtor@gmail.com